Rent growth is flat in 2026: What it means for PM accounting

Key Takeaways

• Yardi Matrix's August 2026 special report forecasts 1.4% national multifamily rent growth for the full year, close to the 1% growth already recorded through mid-year and the slowest pace in a forecast that expects the market to reach 3.5% annual growth by the early 2030s.

• The deceleration is described by Yardi Matrix as "a slowdown, not a decline." July 2026 alone saw the average advertised rent rise $4 to $1,771, the largest July increase since 2015 outside the exceptional post-pandemic years, and national occupancy has held in a stable range despite the record volume of new supply.

• The slowdown is not evenly distributed. Markets that absorbed the heaviest wave of new construction, including Austin, the Southwest Florida coast, Phoenix, and Asheville, are seeing the weakest rent growth, while supply-constrained markets like Honolulu, Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, and South Bend are still forecasting 5 to 6% growth in 2026.

• For PM accounting, flat national rent growth changes three things directly: NOI forecasts need to be built on realistic per-market assumptions rather than a blended national growth rate, concession tracking becomes more important as operators lean on concessions rather than rate cuts, and owner communication about why income isn't growing as fast as prior years needs to happen before the owner asks.

• 2026 multifamily completions are forecast at roughly 458,700 units nationally, meaning the supply pressure behind the slowdown is not resolving quickly. PM firms should expect the current growth environment to persist through at least 2027 based on current Yardi Matrix projections.

National rent growth has not been this slow since before the pandemic, and the reason is not falling demand. It is a record volume of new apartment construction finally catching up to and briefly outpacing absorption, and the result for PM companies is a 2026 that requires different assumptions than 2024 or 2025 did, in the NOI forecast, the owner conversation, and the accounting for concessions that are becoming standard practice in softer submarkets.

Numetix takes an expert-led, AI-powered, and human-in-the-loop approach to NOI forecasting, which means the assumptions built into a client's projections reflect current market data rather than last year's growth trend carried forward. This guide covers what the 2026 rent growth data actually says and what it means for PM accounting specifically.

Quick Answer: What is the outlook for multifamily rent growth in 2026?

• Yardi Matrix's August 2026 forecast puts national rent growth at 1.4% for the full year, a significant deceleration from 2.6% in 2024, driven primarily by a record wave of new apartment completions rather than weakening tenant demand.

• The slowdown varies sharply by market: heavy-construction markets like Austin and Phoenix are seeing the weakest growth and the most concession activity, while supply-constrained markets like Honolulu are still forecasting 5 to 6% growth in 2026.

• For PM accounting purposes, this means NOI forecasts should use market-specific growth assumptions rather than a single national number, and concession tracking should be built into owner reporting as a standard line item rather than an occasional adjustment.

What the 2026 rent growth data actually shows

Yardi Matrix's most recent national report, published in early August 2026 after analyzing six months of confirmed leasing data, forecasts 1.4% rent growth for the full year, close to the 1% year-over-year growth already recorded through mid-year. This is a real deceleration from the 2.6% pace seen in 2024, and Yardi Matrix's longer-range forecast does not expect the market to return to a more typical 3.5% annual growth rate until the early 2030s. Importantly, the report characterizes this as "a slowdown, not a decline": July 2026 alone saw the average advertised rent rise $4 to $1,771, the largest July increase since 2015 outside the post-pandemic boom years, and the 2025-26 trough in the forecast is described as shallower and later than previously projected, reflecting a market that has proven somewhat more resilient than earlier forecasts assumed.

Why the slowdown is happening: supply, not demand

The primary driver is new construction. Yardi Matrix's 2026 completions forecast sits at roughly 458,700 units nationally, with 439,600 units forecast for 2027 and 447,500 for 2028, representing a sustained multi-year wave of new supply hitting the market. Markets that absorbed the heaviest share of this construction wave, including Austin, the Southwest Florida coast, Phoenix, and Asheville, are experiencing the weakest rent growth because the local supply of available units has temporarily outpaced local demand. This is fundamentally a timing and geography problem rather than a broad weakening of renter demand nationally, which is why the picture is so different market to market.

Where growth remains strong: the supply-constrained markets

Markets with tighter supply and steadier demand are seeing a very different 2026 than the heavy-construction markets. Honolulu, Scranton-Wilkes-Barre in Pennsylvania, and South Bend, Indiana are all forecast to grow 5 to 6% in 2026, roughly four to five times the national average. For PM companies operating in these markets, the national headline of "flat rent growth" does not describe their actual leasing environment, which is a reminder that any NOI forecast or owner conversation should be grounded in local market data rather than the national average.

What this means for PM accounting specifically

Three practical changes follow directly from this data. First, NOI forecasts built for owners should use market-specific growth assumptions rather than a single blended national rate; a forecast for an Austin property and a forecast for a Honolulu property should not use the same rent growth assumption in 2026. Second, concession tracking becomes a standard reporting requirement rather than an occasional adjustment, since operators in soft markets are leaning on concessions to maintain occupancy rather than cutting advertised rates outright. Third, owner communication about income performance should happen proactively: an owner whose property is in a heavy-construction market and sees flat or minimal rent growth needs to understand this is a market-wide pattern, not a sign that the PM company is underperforming, and that context is far better delivered before the owner asks than after. The NOI guide covers how to build forecasts that account for current market conditions rather than trailing growth trends.

Frequently asked questions

How long is the current rent growth slowdown expected to last?

Based on Yardi Matrix's current forecast, the slowdown is expected to persist through at least 2027, given that new construction completions are forecast to remain elevated at roughly 439,600 units in 2027 before beginning to taper. The forecast projects a gradual return toward more typical 3.5% annual growth rates by the early 2030s, meaning PM companies should plan for several more years of below-trend growth rather than expecting a quick rebound.

Should a PM company adjust its budget process because of the 2026 slowdown?

Yes, specifically in how growth assumptions are built into owner budgets. A budget process that defaults to applying the prior year's national or regional average growth rate to every property will systematically overstate income projections in heavy-construction submarkets and understate them in supply-constrained ones. The more accurate approach uses submarket-specific data where available, and where it is not available, applies a more conservative growth assumption than recent years' trend would suggest, particularly for any property in a market with significant new supply in the pipeline.

Does flat rent growth affect the trust accounting or reconciliation process?

Not directly. Trust accounting and reconciliation requirements are unrelated to rent growth trends; the same monthly three-way reconciliation process applies regardless of market conditions. Where the connection exists is indirectly: as concessions become more common in a softer market, the accuracy of what actually gets collected and reconciled against the rent roll matters more, since a rent roll that still shows advertised rates without reflecting granted concessions will not match the trust account deposit and will create a reconciliation discrepancy that needs to be traced back to an unrecorded concession rather than an actual error.

For property management firms building 2026 and 2027 owner budgets against a genuinely uneven market, our accounting services build NOI forecasts on current market data rather than trailing assumptions, expert-led, AI-powered, and human-in-the-loop.

See the complete guide to property management accounting for the full financial reporting and forecasting framework.